BIG AL
1.) Connecticut--2:00 PM--our 5* Conference Revenge Game of the Year is on Connecticut over Notre Dame, as the Huskies play with revenge from a loss at South Bend less than 2 weeks ago. We had a big play on Notre Dame in that game, and the Irish rewarded us with an 80-74 win as a 10-point underdog. And they followed that upset with 2 more. They beat Seton Hall by 3 as a 1-point dog, and then they beat Syracuse by 12 as a 7-point dog. But this is where the streak ends, as .500 or teams are 1-12 ATS as an underdog off 3 outright wins as a dog, if they're matched up against a foe off a win, including 0-6 ATS if their opponent won by 10 or more in its previous game. With UConn off a 13-point victory over Miami, the Huskies fall into that 100% subset. Take Connecticut.
2.) Auburn--2:00 PM--Auburn has revenge from a 20-point loss to Kentucky in last year's SEC Tournament. And they fall into a super 101-39 ATS system, which plays on certain REVENGING home teams with strong home courts (winning at least 29 of their previous 40 home games), if they're an underdog, or favored by less than 5 points, and matched up against a .765 (or better) opponent off a SU/ATS win. And we can improve our 101-39 ATS stat to 9-1 ATS if our home team's revenge is from a conference tournament loss in the previous season. Take the Auburn Tigers.
3.) Louisiana Tech--3:00 PM--The Bulldogs return home after a 2-game road trip where they beat Hawaii 62-61 and lost to San Jose State 56-53. Off those 2 results, Louisiana Tech falls into a great system that is 60-13 ATS which plays on certain home teams that held their last 2 foes to 65 points or less, if they're matched up against an opponent off a straight-up loss (SMU lost 62-59 at Hawaii last Saturday). Take Louisiana Tech.
4.) UCLA--4:00 PM--Ben Howland's Bruins are just 11-11 in his first season as coach, and have yet to pull an upset as an underdog of 2 or more points. But I really like them today, as UCLA falls into a great 38-10 ATS system of mine that plays on certain home underdogs of less than 12 points who are off exactly 1 win, provided that win was a home win of 8 or more points (UCLA beat California 66-49 as a 1-point underdog on Thursday). And if our home dog covered by more than 12 in its previous game, this system is an almost-perfect 19-1 ATS since 1990. Take UCLA as our "SHOCKER OF THE MONTH".
5.) VCU--7:00 PM--The Rams fall into a "momentum" system of mine that plays on certain home favorites off back-to-back 10-point wins, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS loss. This angle is 64-18 ATS, including a red-hot 28-5 ATS (85%) since 2000. With Old Dominion in off an 82-66 loss at Drexel, and VCU in off wins vs. Towson State (68-44) and James Madison (92-61), look for the Rams to keep it going tonight with a blowout of Old Dominion, as VCU is 18-7 ATS in conference games at home, and ODU is 0-6 ATS on the road off a 15-point loss.
6.) Oklahoma--9:00 PM--The Sooners fall into a super 45-17 ATS system of mine that involves playing on certain home teams with strong home courts (winning at least 30 of their previous 40 home games), if they're playing with revenge from a same-season loss. And this system improves to an almost-perfect 10-1 ATS (91%) if our home team is an underdog. Besides this technical angle, situational spots just don't get any better than this, as Oklahoma comes into tonight's game off a home loss to Oklahoma State, and their revenge is from an embarassing 66-37 blowout loss at Texas less than 2 weeks ago. That was the Sooners' lowest offensive output in the history of my database (15 years)! With the Longhorns off a home win vs. Texas A&M, and having a home date with Kansas on tap, look for a letdown tonight in Norman. Take Oklahoma.
7.) Oregon State--10:00 PM-- Oregon State plays this game with 34-point loss revenge (they lost 109-75 earlier this year), and the Beavers fall into a great 24-8 ATS (75%) system which plays on certain home underdogs of +4.5 or more that have revenge from a same-season loss of 34+ points. Also, the Beavers are 5-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or greater) loss, and Arizona is 27-47 ATS off back-to-back 80-point games.